Friday, 9 November 2012

Bowling by over number

Batting in the first skin is good - according to the stats. Different people have different strengths and weaknesses, based on where in the innings they bowl - according to the stats. But now, we look a little deeper. Within each skin, would you prefer to bowl the first over? ...the second over? ...the last over? What do the stats say?

Overall, it makes virtually no difference. Considering all Popped Collars games, both our innings' and opponents', there is just 0.25 runs per over difference between the "best" and "worst" over. Our batting is almost as consistent, while our opponents seem to slightly prefer facing odd-numbered overs.

Average runs per over are shown in this table
Over Popped Collars
Batting
Opponent
Batting
Total
First9.46 7.47 8.47
Second9.57 6.87 8.22
Third9.24 7.43 8.34
Fourth9.52 7.00 8.26


Things looked rather uninteresting when I first looked up this stat, and thought I would have to come up with something new for this week. But I forged on, breaking the stats down to a player-by-player thing. And it gets a little more exciting.

Let's forge on with R.Mackay... when bowling the second over of a skin, has an incredible average of just 2.60 runs per over. And not skewed by small sample size - he has bowled over #2 on 50 occasions.

Why? I don't know. I'm struggling to come up with a theory for this one. Maybe it's something to do with Brad's captaincy. Does he purposely send Rian in against batsmen who look poor in their opening over, perhaps in an attempt to crush them?

OK then, let's try to get some insight by checking out everyone else. Here is a list of each (regular) player's best over, and most commonly bowled over.

Bowler Best
Over
Best Over
Average
Most Common
Over
Time Bowled
AndySecond 6.31 Fourth96
BradFourth 6.40 First80
DanielFourth 4.76 Second27
GarethSecond 5.21 First85
JakeSecond 3.78 First69
JulianThird 8.33 Second69
MattThird 8.93 Second38
SanjitFourth 6.11 Third77
XavierSecond 6.05 Fourth110

Clearly, we're doing something wrong here... no one bowls their most successful over most often. Brad, I think we need to find more probably-irrelevant stats like this and change our strategy.
See there is a lot of people whose best over is #2. But over #2 is, in total, not very much worse than any other. Which means that everyone else must bowl rather poorly in over#2 to even it up.

But then, NO regular player has over #2 as their worst. (And it's not the worst over for the combined 'non-regular' players either). Strange.

Another strange this to note is that the team's four "best" bowlers (according to the stats) all bowl the best in over #2. In fact, the team's "best" FIVE bowlers all do it if you count Jim Ragg (who actually has an even better 2nd-over average than Rian!!)

Well, I'm stumped on that one. Is this just some kind of statistical anomaly I've found? Is there something about over #2 each skin that makes the "good" bowlers even better? Is there some deeper truth to the universe hidden in these numbers?

This blog is just going to peter out without any real insights or any conclusions being drawn. So I'll just give you all the numbers to browse on your own. Good luck.

Just like last week, the table shows overs bowled, total runs against in brackets, and average runs per over on the second line.

Bowler Over#1
Over#2Over#3Over#4
Andy74 (482)
6.51
36 (227)
6.31
74 (506)
6.84
96 (616)
6.42
Brad80 (578)
7.23
78 (579)
7.42
66 (590)
8.94
75 (480)
6.40
Daniel22 (243)
11.05
27 (271)
10.04
13 (77)
5.92
17 (81)
4.76
Gareth85 (582)
6.85
52 (271)
5.21
63 (412)
6.54
35 (223)
6.37
Jake69 (643)
9.32
32 (121)
3.78
29 (271)
9.34
23 (220)
9.57
Julian11 (119)
10.82
69 (610)
8.84
61 (508)
8.33
30 (276)
9.20
Matt S27 (321)
11.89
38 (408)
10.74
27 (241)
8.93
29 (287)
9.90
Rian64 (353)
5.52
50 (130)
2.60
50 (252)
5.04
72 (497)
6.90
Sanjit53 (405)
7.64
71 (444)
6.25
77 (615)
7.99
37 (226)
6.11
Xavier66 (461)
6.98
57 (345)
6.05
63 (396)
6.29
110 (686)
6.24

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