Friday, 5 April 2013

How many balls should you face?

Last time, the stats were about the number of balls each batter faced with a pair. This time, I've been asked for a more detailed variation of that theme. Today, we look at a few simple stats, such as averages and high-scores, but sort the results based on how many balls the batter faced in their innings. If that doesn't make sense, too bad, just keep reading.

It may seem intuitive that the more balls you face, the more runs you score. On average, people make positive scores - which means the longer you get to bat, the more your score should go up. In the long run, this is true; but have a look at the following table.

This table gives the averages scores that batters make depending on the number of balls they face in that innings. As you can see, more is not always better:

Balls
Faced
# of
occurrences
Average
score
High ScoreHigh Score by
8133.0033Rian
946.5020Jake
101012.2021Rob
113414.8854Sam (Boonies)
128514.9843Julian
1323115.7156Rian
1434317.2457Aaron (The Balb)
1548217.5264Brad
1649117.1468Brad
1747819.1377Rian
1837218.0560Xavier
1925216.6054Crushie
209615.0957Xavier
214218.8650Brad
221217.4233Pete (Mal Practice)
2362.3315Lyndon (Boonies)
2411.001Matt

In general, the average increases as more balls are faced, until you get to about 18 balls. After that it mostly drops off again (21 balls is a bit of an outlier). And in innings where a player faces 23 or 24 balls, the average is incredibly low.

The simple explanation is that players who are having a bad day with the bat will often face more balls. They'll stand up the strikers end playing and missing, getting bowled, getting stumped; generally not turning the strike over as often as someone who is scoring runs every ball.

Just like last week, you can also see that there are more occurrences of higher numbers of balls being faced, due to extra balls needing to be bowled in some innings (for example, if there were exactly 32 balls every pair, the number of "12 balls faced" would be the same as the number of "20 balls faced")

Ignoring that effect, here's a table to show the best split to have between your batters...

Balls facedAveragesPair average
8 / 241.00 / 33.0034.00
9 / 236.50 / 2.308.80
10 / 2212.20 / 17.4229.62
11 / 2114.88 / 18.8633.74
12 / 2014.98 / 15.0930.07
13 / 1915.71 / 16.6032.31
14 / 1817.24 / 18.0535.29
15 / 1717.52 / 19.1336.65
16 / 1617.14 / 17.1434.28

And finally, here's a table of individual performances from Popped Collars players. Look up a name and a number of balls faced to see that player's average score. The number in brackets is the number of innings they have had where they faced that many balls.

I'll leave you to draw your own conclusions from this, but I will point out one thing... don't let Sanjit face exactly 16 balls in a skin; he only makes about one-third of his career average score. I'm not sure what he's doing there, but it's quite a stat.

13141516171819
Andy15.95
(19)
12.42
(12)
20.00
(27)
20.16
(44)
18.26
(19)
18.45
(20)
24.00
(9)
Brad24.64
(11)
20.21
(28)
24.72
(25)
20.12
(26)
23.11
(28)
28.91
(22)
23.90
(10)
Gareth11.60
(5)
12.44
(9)
16.80
(15)
22.48
(23)
16.00
(26)
18.90
(31)
15.13
(15)
Rian27.39
(18)
23.39
(28)
25.67
(24)
27.33
(24)
28.30
(23)
17.75
(4)
16.60
(5)
Xavier22.35
(17)
20.05
(21)
25.50
(26)
24.20
(30)
25.92
(39)
23.69
(16)
27.00
(11)
Matt10.67
(6)
16.57
(7)
15.17
(6)
8.86
(7)
10.46
(13)
13.71
(14)
10.47
(17)
Sanjit17.33
(3)
18.63
(19)
13.36
(25)
5.11
(18)
13.76
(25)
19.80
(20)
14.00
(13)
Julian13.86
(7)
26.00
(12)
20.43
(21)
17.46
(13)
28.00
(8)
29.50
(10)
20.40
(5)
Jake0.80
(5)
16.18
(11)
15.73
(11)
18.73
(15)
21.71
(17)
21.00
(8)
18.20
(5)
Daniel11.67
(3)
N/A
(0)
18.27
(15)
24.13
(8)
23.6
(5)
12.33
(3)
39.00
(1)

No comments:

Post a Comment